SLC: Global Salon

Oil Panel Discussion Agenda

Introduction:

Panel Members give brief introduction of themselves (area of expertise, etc.)

Amy: Introduce the topic of discussion

Many scholars accept the idea that the world is at its peak of oil consumption. As the supply of available oil decreases, what will be the political, social and economic ramifications on the world stage? I would like to end the discussion with a brief exploration of how to circumvent, or at the very least reduce, the negative impact of a decreased oil supply.

Commence Discussion:

Possible questions:

(Brainstorm of questions, but discussion will be crafted based on panel views and information)

What are some of the political ramifications?

• How will relations with the Middle East change?
• With Russia? Europe?

• What could American foreign policy look like in the future?

• Will all available oil resources be utilized?
• What will be the environmental repercussions of such and action?

What are the economic ramifications?

• How will price be affected?
• Will demand be reduced?
• Will there be an attempt to cap prices?

• How may the economy behave if oil supplies decline?

• How will economies on the local level be affected?

What are the social ramifications?

• How will the individual be affected by a reduced oil supply?

• How will the landscape of American culture change as a result of the lack of cheap oil in the short term?
• In the long term?

• Will American lifestyles and level of consumption change?
• Is change economically and socially possible?

Concluding point:

What steps can be taken before the point of crisis to lesson the impact of a reduced oil supply?

Amy: Conclude the exercise

Panel Discussion Synopsis

The discussion began with a self-introduction by each of the speakers—Dr. Black, a professor of environmental studies, Dr. Wiens-Tuers, a professor of economics, and Dr. Seymour, a professor of political science. Each of the three panel members were able to offer unique and interesting viewpoints throughout the discussion, given their very different academic backgrounds. The discussion then commenced in front of a full room of seemingly-interested students.

I began by describing the key issue of discussion—the idea of peak oil. Peak oil is a theory in the scientific community that the world has reached the height of possible oil production. Dr. Black offered some background knowledge to the issue. When oil was discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania in the 1860s, people really did think that it was infinite, although somewhat useless. To this point whale oil was still being used for lighting, although the whale population was slowly going extinct due to over-hunting. It was the oil whaling families of the north-east that invested in oil, researching it as a potential source of light. Eventually kerosene was refined and the Titusville oil became a profitable commodity. Oil’s profitability only increased as new uses were found for the substance, from cars to plastics in the twentieth century.

Dr. Seymour brought the discussion into the present when she offered a viewpoint of the coming political struggles over oil. She offered the idea that as oil availability is depleted, resource wars will commence. Nations will fight to control what is left of a dwindling energy supply. Situations, such as the genocide seen in Darfur, where a population was pushed off of potentially energy-rich land, will become more common in the coming decade. Dr. Seymour and Dr. Black also discussed the creation of strategic oil reserves in many nations. In the United States, George W. Bush authorized the creation of a strategic oil reserve, placing oil in abandoned salt mines where it could be saved and protected. Having a protected oil supply may seem like a good idea at the onset, but this is not domestic oil. It was purchased abroad at market prices and had the effect of reducing the international supply, thus increasing international prices. All speakers agreed that this hording mentality would only increase in the coming years, as oil supplies begin to dwindle.

One student in the audience asked if a biofuels or some technology might be a solution to the oil crisis. Dr. Weins-Tuers offered the interesting point that one cannot completely rely on technology as a total solution. All of the major technological advances in the last century, she offered, were petro-based. Even if a major technological shift was possible, it would still follow older economic patterns of an economy in transition. Every time a nation undergoes a major economic shift, it follows the pattern of creative destruction. In this pattern, an old way of life is killed and replaced by a new pattern of existence. This shift may be desirable, even necessary, but it still results in massive unemployment and social turmoil. The panel then began an extensive discussion on unintended consequences. Biofuels are not a viable solution to the energy crisis because of their many unintended consequences, such as deforestation and a corresponding increase in carbon emissions. Additionally, the creation of biofuels from food products creates both food shortages and higher prices, potentially causing world-wide hunger.

The panel discussion concluded with an exploration of the economics of the oil situation. In the American social structure, one must drive to work and be part of society. This creates an inelastic demand that is unable to respond to price. Therefore, consumers will buy gas, no matter what it costs. The only way to combat this trend is if the price of gas is so high that the consumer is completely unable to pay for it, only then will patterns of consumption change. The panel members speculated that suburban culture would be destroyed by the oil transition, a shocking fact to the young audience. However, suburban existence has been in existence for a historically short amount of time, and a transition away from this lifestyle is completely possible. It is clear from the content of the discussion, however, that the era of cheap easy energy is over. Patterns of worldwide consumption and diplomacy are going to change to reflect an oil shortage. While weathering the transition away from oil is completely possible, it will not be an easy process—and it is becoming unavoidable.